Attempting to predict the real estate market in Dubai comes with risks. According to experts, buyers who prioritize their needs over speculative gains and adopt a steady approach often witness successful property performance as the emirate advances.

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The optimal time to purchase property in Dubai has been unveiled by real estate experts. According to Simon Pitkin, Managing Partner at dv Property International, the ideal timing for property acquisition in Dubai is contingent upon individual circumstances and financial preparedness.

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“Presently, numerous renters in Dubai facing rising prices are transitioning into potential homeowners. Individuals with job security and a commitment to long-term residence in the country are keen on acquiring both personal and investment properties. Additionally, professional investors are capitalizing on the market, securing robust profit margins,” Simon said, adding that “trying to ‘time’ the market however, is difficult and can result in missed opportunities.”

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Buy property when square foot rates are lower

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The emirate’s real estate market experienced a surge in square foot rates following the COVID-19 pandemic due to several factors.

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There was increased demand for larger homes as people sought more spacious living environments. Limited supply and high demand contributed to rising prices.

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Following this, Dubai attracted a significant influx of high-net-worth individuals and investors, drawn by the city’s pro-business environment, favourable tax policies, and strategic location.

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This further fuelled demand and drove up prices, particularly for luxury properties. Additionally, the Dubai government implemented initiatives to stimulate the real estate market, such as granting long-term visas and reducing investment barriers, which enhanced Dubai’s appeal and increased demand.

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The strong post-pandemic economic recovery in Dubai, along with low-interest rates globally, also played a role in driving up real estate prices as investors sought alternative avenues for returns.

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“The real estate landscape in Dubai is evolving, marked by heightened transparency and enhanced regulations. Recent real estate cycles indicate a more predictable pattern in price fluctuations, reflecting a deliberate equilibrium in demand and supply orchestrated by Dubai authorities.” Simon Pitkin added.

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Buying ‘seasons’ in Dubai property market

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When asked if there any specific seasons or months of the year when property prices in Dubai tend to be lower or more favourable for buyers, Simon said prices do not change based on seasons.

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However, it has been observed that “ready homes sales volume during the third quarter is generally the lowest in a year.”

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According to dvPI’s Simon “there may be seasons or months during the year with lower buyer activity.”

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These include the summer months when most expat families go on vacation, during public holidays and festivals. “The transaction prices generally remain stable,” he said, adding that “those holding out for a Christmas, Ramadan or Black Friday discounts are unlikely to find them in Dubai real estate.”

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When determining the opportune moment to invest in Dubai’s real estate market, several key factors come into effect.

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According to Simon, the most favourable time to make a property purchase is during the market’s trough stage, which was seen in both 2010 and 2020.

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“Nevertheless, end-users typically opt for property acquisition when they are financially prepared and ready, intending to hold onto their investment for the long term. On the other hand, investors may focus on rental yields, a scenario in which rental values outpace capital values – a trend notably observed in today's apartment market,” he said.

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Looking ahead, prospective buyers should be attuned to upcoming events, policy changes, and economic factors that could influence property prices in Dubai.

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“The potential decrease in mortgage rates in 2024 might motivate tenants to transition to homeownership, given the ongoing trend of faster rising rents compared to capital values. Additionally, the recently announced Dubai Metro line is anticipated to influence demand in communities that stand to gain from enhanced transportation links.” Simon added.

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High interest areas for buyers in Dubai

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Given Dubai’s dynamic real estate market, there is also a visible pattern of interest across various segments, catering to the needs and preferences of different buyer profiles, Simon said.

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“Entry-level homeowners and investors are showing keen interest in affordable areas like Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC), Arjan, Jumeirah Lake Towers (JLT), and Dubai South, thanks to new launches. Meanwhile, mid-level market zones, particularly villa communities such as Arabian Ranches, The Springs, The Lakes, and The Meadows, are gaining traction among homeowners due to their convenient proximity to family schools and workplaces. Investors eyeing these areas see opportunities to renovate properties, fetching high rental rates or reselling for profit.” he said.

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Despite signs of a slowdown in the Russian market, the demand for luxury properties in Dubai remains robust, Simon explained, adding that European, Indian, and Middle Eastern buyers are actively investing in sought-after areas like Palm Jumeirah, Al Barari, and Emirates Hills.

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“Off-plan launches and in particular, the new launch by Nakheel in Palm Jebel Ali recently saw hundreds of buyers and agents queuing on launch day for available units, seeing an opportunity to buy at the right time and price,” King said.

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In addition, Simon said that Dubai could “see an acceleration in price growth within mid to affordable communities versus a slowdown in capital gains for high-end properties,” in areas of Discovery Gardens, Dubai Silicon Oasis, Jumeirah Village, Business Bay, The Greens and Dubai Production City.

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